Two 150s is exactly right. Remember that if two are working in tandem, actually the cost difference is not an issue as each will work less/for shorter ‘on times’. Your thinking on this is spot on regarding one unit failing etc. My 60g has two 150s and my 75g has two 200s. I might also suggest you use a controller like a Blueline to run the heaters off of so that a malfunctioning heater overheating is prevented. My controllers are set to 3 degrees above my desired tank temp so that the heaters cannot overheat and boil the fish bc the controller will shut off the power to the heaters hooked up to it should the tank temp rise above that 3 degree mark. Some people use controllers to actually operate the heaters at desired tank temp. I prefer to use the controller as an insurance plan.